How do Ladbrokes work out their betting odds for each constituency? It is a complete mystery to me.

The Conservative candidate here in Pendle, Andrew Stephenson, is 11-2 on which pretty much makes him a dead cert. And yet it doesn’t quite feel like that.

The result isn’t a foregone conclusion despite three years of saturation bombing of newspapers, leaflets and surveys financed by our friend in Belize, the tax exile and Vice Chairman of the Conservative Party, Lord Ashcroft.

Stephenson hasn’t left many footprints in the sand as any Google search will show. A spell as a councillor in leafy, well heeled Macclesfield and that’s about it.

The odds on Labour winning are 7–2. That’s where the smart money will go.

So, to the Lib Dems and their silent and invisible candidate, Afzal Anwar. Ladbrokes are offering 40–1. That seems a tad generous to me.

The Liberal democrats always get a sizeable vote in Pendle – always have done – but never enough to win. And with such a weak candidate, this time their vote could collapse quite dramatically.